Most Important Series to Date?

RAISE THE JOLLY ROGER!!!

After defeating the Reds 5-3, the Pirates move to 20-23 on the year. Detroit comes to town for a 3 game series in what I might consider the most important series so far this year.

The Pirates competely blew an opportunity in Washington. They ran themselves into outs and missed chances to win the game. They fell to 18-23 and ruined a lot of hope that they'd see .500 again this year.

Then they traveled to Cincinatti and went 2-0 in exciting fashion. Charlie Morton dominated and Pedro Alvarez smashed a ball into the seats in the first game. Andrew McCutchen bailed out James McDonald and Johnny Cueto finally took a loss vs the Bucs.

Enter Detroit. The Pirates are 73-123 all time in interleague play, the worst of any MLB team. Detroit comes in 22-21, 134-113 all time in interleague play.

If the Pirates get swept, all the negative feelings pre-Electric Stuff come back. Morton's start? Forgotten. Pedro's solid series? History. Win 1 of 3 and you're 4 games under .500 and play 2 games vs Atlanta, 6 games on the road (CHC/NYM), and then have ahome series vs the Phillies. And you thought this past slide was brutal??

The team needs to win this series to generate more positive interest in the team. When Charlie Morton DAZZLES and the next morning during my drive to Cranberry all I hear is fans calling into a talk radio show continuing to breathe fire in the Pirates general direction, something is wrong.

(To get off topic a bit, one particular call irked me. A truck driver called into the show after Vinny asked if anyone is still able to be positive about the team. The guy spouted off about how nobody can "talk bad" to him about the Steelers or Penguins when he's on the road because he won't have it but when they bring up the Pirates it doesn't matter. He said the issue over the past 18 years has been coaching from the bottom up, without giving any sort of evidence for it whatsoever. Vinny remarked that they replaced a few coaches this past offseason, including at the very top. "Yeah well they've been doing that for a while" and cited John Russell as if it didn't matter if the Pirates changed coaches, they were still going to suck. If the problem is the coaching staff and you change them and still suck, maybe the problem really isn't the coaching staff. Maybe you're just an idiot that can't be pleased no matter what change they make, not to mention a bandwagon Pens fan to boot. Put the phone down and stay in your lane. Back on topic...)

A series sweep and you're back at .500. Positive vibes potentially restored. Win all 5 home games and who knows what could happen? Maybe Ron Cook buys a ticket to a game. Maybe Bob Smizik buys a Joel Hanrahan jersey and tries to patch things up with Frank Coonelly. Anything is possible!

So late's take a look at the pitching matchups:

5/20: Jeff Karstens and Brad Penny

In his last 3 games, Penny is 3-0 in 21.2 IP with a 0.83 ERA, striking out 4 and walking 2. Looking at his numbers on the year, what stands out is that his K/9 and BAA numbers are the lowest of his career. His career K/9 is 6.18, but 3.63 this year. His career BAA is .263, but .242 this year. Looking at his BABIP, all that could soon change. His career BABIP is .298, while it's .251 this year, his lowest ever. it hasn't been below .290 since 2004. Looking at his PitchFX, he's lost 2 MPH and some movement on his fastball and is throwing his offspeed more than in previous years.

In Karsten's past 3 starts, he's 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA, striking out 11 and walking 4. I really don't like Karstens as a starter, but he's been able to give up 2 or less ER and go 5 or more innings in 4 of his past 5 games. At home he has a 2.08 ERA and .265 BAA. If Karstens can continue the trend, the Pirates will have a chance.

Looking at Penny's career BABIP vs 2011, he's bound to start giving up more hits. That doesn't necessarily mean it will happen in this series, but let's hope it does. Karstens is Karstens. He's not going to throw a game like Morton did Wednesday, but the damage should be kept to a minimum. As with most games Karstens starts, it's going to be up to the offense to make something happen. With the way Penny has been pitching lately, it's not looking good. But with a below normal BABIP and a weakened fastball, the Bucs still have a chance.

5/21: Kevin Correia vs Max Scherzer

In his last 3 starts, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA, striking out 16 and walking 6. On the year he has a 2.81 ERA, striking out 53 and walking 24. To boot, he has a .255 BAA and 8.27 K/9. He's had an outstanding year this year. Pretty much the only thing the Pirates have going for them is his 1.25 HR/9 rate. He's a flyball pitcher that will strike you out.

Correia has been touch and go his past 2 starts giving up 10 ER in 10.1 innings. He pitched fairly well vs the Dodgers spreading out 10 hits over 6 innings, but gave up a 3 run HR which broke the Pirates back. He was terrible vs the Brewers in his next start giving up 6 runs and 8 hits in 4 innings. He's been streaky on the year, but when he's on his game, he's good. He's given up 2 or less ER in 6 of 10 starts.

Correia has been able to bounce back from bad starts this year. He threw a 2 run, 4 hit complete game vs the Reds following a bad loss to Milwaukee and didn't give up a run in 6.2 innings vs Colorado following a 5 ER game vs Washington. If Correia bounces back, this game will be a pitchers duel. Scherzer will strike out a lot of Pirates, but is vunerable to the longball. If the Pirates can drive some balls deep, they have a chance. If not, you'll see a lot of swings and misses.

5/22: Paul Maholm vs Rick Porcello

In his past 3 starts, Porcello is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA, striking out 11 and walking 5. He has an identical 3.67 ERA to Maholm, but a 2.45 K:BB ratio vs Maholm's 1.70. Porcello has an unimpressive .285 BAA, but has allowed 2 or less runs in his last 5 starts. His GB:FB ratio is 1.71 thanks to a few double digit GB games, but in his last two starts, it's been close to even. Porcello is in his 3rd season, totaling only 375 innings. He's showing signs of improvement and the Pirates haven't shown much this year vs soft tossers.

Maholm is 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA, striking out 14 and walking 10 in his past 3 starts. The story on the year for Maholm is that he has received very little run support on the year. He's given up 2 or less ER in 5 of 9 starts and 4 or more in just 2. Walks have been a concern this year. He has a 3.67 BB/9, but has the highest K/9 of his career at 6.23. His BAA at .232 is the lowest of any season he's pitched over 100 innings. Unfortunately his BABIP is also somewhat low at .272 vs a cereer .311.

This matchup could really go either way. Porcello doesn't have dominant stuff and Maholm has been solid as of late. I really don't expect the Pirates to do much vs Porcello because they haven't shown me anything all year vs a guy like him. Plus Porcello has been pitching extremely well lately. But he's pretty young and he's been blown out a few times this year. Don't forget though, Maholm is pitching. Maybe another 2-0 loss.

All in all, the Pirates are running into some really hot pitchers. Couple that with a pretty good Detroit line up, and it's a recipe for disaster. Luckily the Tigers will have to sit a hitter in favor of a pitcher, so Jim Leyland will have to mull that over a cigarette. This could help swing things in the Pirates favor.

If the Pirates want to instill some positivity in the fanbase, they need to sweep this series and get back to .500. Show it's not going to be a fluke this year. There should be some good crowds to welcome Leyland back and Saturday is Neil Walker bobblehead day. Give them another reason to pack the house this weekend. Bust out the broom!

Who in Indy Can Help?

After watching the Pirates waste plenty of opportunities on Monday, I wondered aloud on Twitter, who in AAA would help the current group of Pirates. The responses were pretty underwhelming. Pretty depressing, actually.

So I've decided with the rainout to take a look at options in AAA Indianapolis.

OF Alex Presley
2011: .340/.393/.490 4 HR, 14 BB, 26 K

Alex Presley seems to be the first thought on everyone's mind when the question is proposed. He's a lefty bat that could play in right field. One caller to 93.7 The Fan today suggested moving Garrett Jones to 1B and planting Presley in right. This would put Lyle Overbay on the bench and the suggestion was also to end the platoon situation with Matt Diaz.

vs LHP: 50 AB .380/.426/.460 1 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
vs RHP: 97 AB .320/.376/.505 3 HR, 10 BB, 14 K

Looking at Presley's splits, almost half of his strikeouts have come vs lefties and in half as many at bats. The average is outstanding, but you have to wonder how long that will stand up with such a small sample size. Also only 2 of 19 hits went for extra bases. He's not exactly mashing lefties. Looking at the Matt Diaz/Garrett Jones splits vs lefties they've had 6 hits in 45 at bats COMBINED. In 2010 though, Diaz hit .273 is 121 AB vs lefties. It could be a result of a small sample size, but Diaz has looked punchless at the plate this year, sporting a .233/.263./.301 line, althought his numbers are slightly better vs righties.

If the Pirates were to simply bring up Presley for Diaz, would it make them a better team? Probably. However, it wouldn't make sense for Presley to simply take over the RF role right out of AAA. Garrett Jones is faring well vs RHP with a .270/.393/.506 line. Jones is also a defensive liability at first. That would leave Presley facing LHP and as a left handed batter, it wouldn't be ideal. Plus we already touched on his K concerns, which would surely increase vs better pitching.

Presley is better served getting at bats at the AAA level. Should a Pirates OF go on the DL, he could be a candidate for a recall. John Bowker could also be a candidate if a spot is open spot on the 40 man. Presley is probably a better option than Diaz at the moment, but not enough better to make this a no brainer. Presley only has 25 MLB plate appearances and still showed poor plate discipline (8 Ks/1 BB) in the few ABs he's received. Barring injury, Presley is better served in Indy until a true need arises.


SS Pedro Ciriaco
2011: .185/.189/.258 2 HR, 1 BB, 21 K

Ronny Cedeno is not the shortstop of the future. Who is the answer? I really can't see one. There really is no option currently staring back in the system. Pedro Ciriaco is the closest thing you'll find and if you look at his 2011 numbers and didn't throw up in your mouth, kudos to you. Is Pedro Ciriaco a better option than Ronny Cedeno? Nope! Is Pedro Ciriaco a better option than Brandon Wood? I really don't think so.

What does Pedro Ciriaco provide? Speed and defense. Ciriaco has 9 SB on the year in 15 attempts. That's really not great, but they're better numbers than the 2 shortstops the Pirates currently employ. His defensive numbers are tough to locate since minor league fielding stats are not easy to find or prudent to go by, however he was tabbed as a slick fielder, so let's just go with it.

Ronny Cedeno (brain farts and all) actually sports an 18.7 UZR/150 this year, which really isn't half bad. Troy Tulowitzki has a 3.2 UZR/150 while Alcides Escobar has a 13.2 UZR/150, so I guess take that with a grain of salt. With the lack of statistics and the fact Cedeno has played adequate in the field this year, advantage Ronny Cedeno.

Sadly, Cedeno trumps Ciriaco in almost every category. We really don't even need to go into a bunch of numbers to prove this. It's the state of the middle infield depth throughout the system. There are a ton of question marks and zero answers. Ciriaco is clearly not an upgrade to *gulp* Ronny Cedeno. He's really not even an upgrade to Brandon Wood, who also has the advantage of playing 3B and 1B. Pedro Ciriaco is best served as an emergency option.

Josh Harrison/Chase D'Arnaud
2011: .333/.375/.494
2011: .260/.342/.412

I bring up these two in the event that something should happen to a certain hometown hero and/or a struggling slugger. Let's face it, there are tons of OF options and the Catchers available aren't worth discussing with Doumit and Snyder both doing pretty well. That leaves 2B/3B and considering these two both start at those positions, let's talk about 'em.

Harrison was involved in the (terrible) Gorzo/Grabow deal and really is the only piece that may actually be worth something some day. I'm not exactly holding my breath for Kevin Hart to ever make it and Jose Ascanio isn't making any friends after blowing Monday's game. Harrison has shown a knack for hitting for average as well as an ability to put the ball in play. Last year his K% was 10%. It's a tick higher at 13.6%, but could decrease given he's only had 89 PAs.

D'arnaud isn't exactly making believers out of everyone after his dismal .247/.331/.377 year in 2010. This after a hot debut of .295/.402/.481 the year before. D'arnaud isn't helping himself with a BB:K rate of almost 1:2. Luckily, he has seen time at SS throughout his time in the system which would help boost any chances of making the big leagues.

Harrison's best bet at making the team right now would be as a bench player. He's spent some time on the DL with an injury this season, so he is best off spending the year in AAA. It really wouldn't be far fetched to see him in a MLB uniform someday given his ability to get on base and not strikeout. D'arnaud on the other hand needs to spend the year at AAA and possibly beyond. Neither one is an option to make it to the MLB this year, but Harrison's name really should be thrown out there more than it is.

If you really had to pick one player to say "Does he make the Pirates better", the only player you could say might is Alex Presley. But the Pirates already have a left handed RF in Garrett Jones and it's not clear that Presley should get playing time over him. For the time being, it appears he's best served getting ABs at AAA and waiting for an opportunity. There really is no rush to call him up, but if things don't improve for Diaz by June/July maybe a tough deciscion needs to be made.