Thursday, August 27, 2009

PIRATES TAKE 2 OF 3 FROM DEFENDING CHAMPS

The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken 2 of 3 games from the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. They could've easily have taken all 3!! All 3 games were well pitched and tight for most of the game.

The Pirates trio of Ross Ohlendorf, Paul Maholm, and Charlie Morton only let up 5 hits a piece and averaged about 5 strikeouts an outing. The thing that will stand out is that despite 3 great outings, none of the starting pitchers were the pitcher of record. In fact, only J.A. Happ took a loss the entire series going 8 innings and giving up the decisive home run in the bottom of the 8th to Garret Jones.

The most memorable game, of course, will be the first game of the series when Andrew McCutchen went yard off Brad Lidge. The Pirates lost the lead (partly because of McCutchen) and McCutchen and Moss bailed them out by tying and then winning the game in dramatic fashion.

The Pirates could have easily have laid down after Ryan Howards deflating blast last night, but Charlie Morton had a great breaking ball and had the Phillies' knees buckling all night long. Jones eventually gave them the lead on a shot to center and Matt Capps picked up the save.

The Pirates now move on to Milwaukee and will start with Zach Duke on the hill. The Pirates have won 4 of their last 6 and have owned the Brewers the last few weeks. Having Zach Duke continuing his great season is a must to keep the Pirates on track.

The Pirates appear to finally be gelling. They seem to still have problems with the fundamentals at times, but their starting staff has been hot and can keep them in games. While they didn't score an amazing amount of runs in these games, it appears the feast or famine style they've been on for a while might be over. If the Pirates can continue to improve I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates picked as the surprise team next year if they can make a few moves to solidfy the bullpen. Don't forget, Pedro Alvarez has a great shot of making the team come May and we'll have a full year of Andrew McCutchen and Garret Jones!

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Former #1 Pick/Scapegoat Still Going Strong



Danny Moskos.

What comes to mind when you think of that name?

For most Pirates fans it was the tipping point of the lack of spending. Dave Littlefield and company passed on superstar catcher Matt Weiters because of his initial contract demands and because he was represented by none other than Scott Boras.

I remember the exact moment I was when I found out the Pirates passed on Matt Weiters and even wrote a blog about it (on Myspace haha) about how I actually would've preferred Jason Heyward or even Rick Porcello over Matt Weiters.

While Moskos isn't even in the same stratosphere as Heyward, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, or Porcello, #5 starter for the Tigers, he has quietly had a good year in AA. It seems like the fans using him as the scapegoat have become less and less and Moskos may finally be feeling comfortable in the Pirates system.

Moskos was taken 4th overall and was billed as a guy who can throw 91-94 with a major league quality slider as his strikeout pitch and would quickly reach Pittsburgh. Most draft experts, at the time, argued that Moskos was taken as a signability (there's that word again) pick and because he would sign for what MLB slotted for that pick.

In Moskos' first full year in the system he had pretty bad numbers. The Pirates used him as a starter for a good portion of the year, but it took it's toll on his arm and they eventually stuck him in the pen. Moskos accumulated a 7-7 record in 20 starts and 9 appearances with an abysmal 5.59 ERA giving up 73 earned runs, almost as many as his 78 strikeouts!

This season "Moskie", his author name on his blog, again started out poorly, but has turned it on recently. In his last 10 starts he is 6-3 with a 3.47 ERA striking out 35. If not for a 2.2 inning 5 run game on Aug 8, Moskos would be sporting a 2.82 ERA in that time. For the year he is 10-9 with a 3.78 ERA. Moskos, however, continues to let runs in as he has let in 55 ER to his 62 Ks.

Moskos has been starting for most his Pirates career, but Neal Huntington appears to be doing this to stretch out his pitchers' arms. Once Moskos reaches the higher levels, look for his role to be more clearly defined.

While it appears Moskos is still atleast one year, probably two, from Pittsburgh, don't count him out of the Pittsburgh future plans. If Moskos continues to shine, very quietly I might add, he may actually surpass some of the skeptics and be a solid guy out of the bullpen. The Pirates have a dearth of lefty help in their system, so Moskos could be counted on down the road.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The MLB Draft Needs Changed

Scott Boras discussed the MLB draft with 619 Sports today. In it Boras says that as revenues increase around baseball the money should trickle down to the players into the draft. While that conversation alone could warrant it's own seperate blog entry, the draft as a whole needs corrected and Scott Boras could have a big impact in it.

As a fan, I'd love to see Scott Boras put in handcuffs and taken away for the money he has stolen from management and hostage situations he has put fans in. Pirates fans witnessed it first hand when the Pirates drafted Pedro Alvarez, were forced to wait until the deadline until he signed, only to have the rug pulled underneath him when Boras and Alvarez said "wait a second, I didn't really sign". But the reality is that Boras has earned his players millions and he represents some pretty damn good players.

Boras' argument that the players in the draft deserve the trickle down in increased revenues has a bit of weight behind it. The cost of living has surely gone up since the 1990s, 1980s, and so on. The problem is where does it end? If super prospect Bryce Harper is eligible next year and is selected first overall will Boras say "this is hands down the single best prospect I've ever seen, and this time I really mean it, even though I said it last year!" Will teams have to pony up $18, $20, $30 million just to even talk to Harper?

Obviously the people most effected by this is the owners because it's their money being spent, but what about the players currently in the major leagues? Owners are being more thrifty and are spending more than ever on the draft. So all those marginal starters, like a Eric Hinske, Mike Lamb, etc, looking for work that could have easily gotten $3-$6mil will probably be hoping for minor league contracts and bench roles on bad teams.

Jayson Stark discussed all of this in a column this week and brought some great ideas that appear to be thrown around such as: Slotting, trading of picks, making it world wide, and increasing control.

In my opinion, the most logical idea would be an NHL style combination of the two. First, increase the club's control of a player. If you select a High School player, you've got that guy for 3-4 years, so basically his junior year. If you fail to sign him going into his SR year, the player can then jump back into the draft for one last stab. What happens after that is completely up to MLB. Maybe he becomes a Free Agent or perhaps one last draft and then free agency.

On top of being able to control the players, you should be able to trade your picks. This works well in two ways. Take Bryce Harper for example. Say he wants $50 million and you know he's not getting that. You can trade him to a team that might like the Red Sox, Dodgers, or Yankees. But you can always keep him around and maybe his price lowers. Also, maybe a team like the Pirates are looking for prospects now and don't have much they want to offer, but they've got this great player in Harper that would be a mega star if he hits it big in a market like LA. They trade him for a package and net a whole bunch of prospects or major league players to get them over the hump.

Agents and draftees may not like this idea because the club holds you hostage now for approximately 3 years, but it leaves a lot of room for leverage and contract discussion. Also, what happens if a player goes to college and gets hurt? Then his stock has plummeted,giving room for the club to get him on the cheap or for the prospect to be forced to stay an extra year to increase his value or even have to go back into the draft!

This may shake things up a bit and all parties may be upset at some point, but it seems to work pretty well in the NHL. However, rather than look at a new perspective, Selig seems to really believe in the slotting system, but more stiff this time, and now wants to open the draft world wide! I really don't think this will work and it will just add more Scott Boras "best prospect I've seen since 5 minutes ago" type prospects that "deserve" $10-$20million without setting foot on a professional field.

While I hope something is changed, and more than just slotting and worldwide are considered, I think Jason Stark summed the current draft style up pretty well:

Strasburg is guaranteed slightly more money than Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz were guaranteed for this season put together. Those guys own a combined nine Cy Young Awards. Strasburg has thrown a combined zero professional pitches.

But don't worry, he's the greatest college pitcher one man has ever seen.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

2008 Pirates Draft: One Year Later

While the 2009 MLB draft has come and gone, perhaps it might be a good idea to take a look at the Pirates 2008 draft.

- Wilbur Miller's 2008 Draft Signed/Unsigned



Most Notable signings: Pedro Alvarez, Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller

Pedro Alvarez



Taking the player that most scouts viewed as the top player (and hardest to sign) was a must for Neal Huntington’s first draft. After a long and drawn out process, Alvarez was signed in August 2008 and started his ascent in the Pirates system this spring. Alvarez was started out in High A Lynchburg where he hit 14 home runs and 55 RBI in 66 games. While a .247 average and 70 strike outs won’t get most prospects called up, Alvarez hit well towards the end of his tenure there and was definitely deserving. Alvarez has continued hitting well with a .343 average through 45 games. Alvarez’s power stroke has continued to show as he has 9 home runs, 14 doubles, and 28 RBI in that time. Huntington has already stated Alvarez won’t join bash brother Jose Tabata in AAA Indianapolis, but look for Alvarez to make the move at some point in 2010 with a possible Major League call up.

Robbie Grossman

Grossman was a lock to go to Texas before the draft; that is until the Pirates decided to throw $1million his way and pay his college tuition. Grossman was billed as a 5 tool player, which the Pirates appeared to be lacking at the time in their system. Grossman made his way into the system soon enough to get a few games in at the Gulf Coast level, but didn’t do much, batting .188 with an RBI and a stolen base in 21 plate appearances. Grossman has done pretty well for a 19 year old this year at Low A West Virginia batting .275 and 31 stolen bases through 97 games. Grossman appears to show his age with a gaudy 133 strike out total, but has done well getting on base with 60 walks. Grossman has yet to flash much power only hitting 5 home runs and 19 doubles in his first year. Look for Grossman to improve on those numbers once he gets more acclimated to pro ball. While it hasn’t been a huge start to his pro career, Grossman has set himself up for a solid 2010.

Quinton Miller



When the Pirates initially drafted Miller they seemed like a long shot to sign him. I was actually shocked when I heard he somehow got signed. The Pirates ponied up $900k and stole him from his commitment to UNC. Miller was rated the #158 prospect by Baseball America and the top prospect in New Jersey. He started his pro career this year out in State college, but only pitched 7 innings over 2 starts there giving up 10 hits, 3 runs, 3 walks, and 4 strike outs. I guess the Pirates saw enough in him to promote him to West Virginia. He has had an up and down time there spotting a 5.59 ERA through 8 starts. He is averaging 9 hits/9 inn and 5.6K/9inn. Miller, like Grossman, should improve as he learns to become a better pitcher. Miller does have one weird stat about him though. In 2 day game starts he’s given up a total of 11 earned runs (0-1 12.38 ERA). In 6 night game starts he has given up only 12 earned runs (2-2 3.72 ERA). With such a small sample size to go off, hold off on your opinions on Miller. He will be 20 years old next year and it could be a very pivotal year for the bonus baby, especially with the crop of young guys from the 2009 draft nipping at his heels.



Most notable players unsigned: Tanner Scheppers, Patrick Palmeiro, Zachary Wilson

Tanner Scheppers

Scheppers was a top 10 prospect before he suffered a stress fracture, dropping his stock considerably. The Pirates took a chance on him and he ended up wanting top 10 money, rather than what the Pirates considered a reasonable offer. Scheppers was taken by the Texas Rangers with their supplemental first round pick. Scheppers has been rumored to be injured and continues to ask for the moon when it comes to his signing bonus. Scheppers has worked out for Japanese scouts and has been given a clean bill of health. It doesn’t appear that Scheppers signed with Texas this year either, so look for him to play internationally for a year or two and try to work out a deal with an MLB team. There was this little tidbit that says Scheppers can “hold out for as long as he wants”. I’m not sure how that works, or if it’s even true, but it sounds like Scheppers really wants to get big bucks and show he can be the dominant player people thought he was before the injury. I loved the videos I saw of Scheppers and I wish him all the luck in his pursuit. I just wish he would’ve signed with the Pirates when they drafted him!

Patrick Palmeiro

The Pirates took a flyer on power hitting son of Rafael Palmeiro. The Pirates made an effort to sign Palmeiro, but he ultimately chose not to sign. It was tough to dig up info on him, but it appears he’s playing at Grayson County Junior College. You can check up on him more here.

Zachary Wilson

Wilson was a player that was highly regarded, especially in terms of power, but possibly fell to the 26th round because he is a Scott Boras client. I couldn’t dig up any information on how the Pirates approached him, but he eventually didn’t sign and went to Arizona State. Wilson hit 0 home runs in 26 games. He also batted .275 with 6 walks and 18 strike outs. 0 home runs in 26 games is a shocking number when scouts talk about him being a power hitter, but it could be due to him being a freshman. He hit only 5 his senior year in HS, but look for him to develop some power once he hits the weight room a little more.



Biggest surprises: Jarek Cunningham, Chase D’Arnaud, Brian Leach

Jarek Cunningham

Cunningham wasn’t expected to sign with the Pirates right from high school, but did and was a pleasant surprise in the Gulf Coast League. Due to the bevy of shortstops taken by the Pirates in the 2008 draft, he split time between SS and 3B. In 43 games he batted .318 with 5 HR and 22 RBI. It’s a wonder if he will stay at 3B as he had 8 errors in 26 games. Unfortunately Cunningham tore his ACL and has lost the 2009 season. 2010 will be a big year for Cunningham. He will turn 20 and is a highly regarded prospect in the Pirates system. Time will tell if Cunninham can handle the pressure and continue to build on one of the most solid debuts of any 2008 Pirates draft pick.

Chase D’Arnaud

It’s hard to call D’Arnaud a surprise when he’s a 4th round pick, but D’Arnaud has separated himself from the other shortstops taken along with him and appears to be moving along nicely through the system. He batted .286 with 1 HR and 28 RBI in his first pro season with State College. He started the year out with West Virginia, but has since moved on to Lynchburg, where he has a respectable .279 batting average through 33 games along with 3 HR and 22 RBI drawing 20 walks and only striking out 21 times. D’Arnaud has been playing solid defense at SS and 2B while SS prospect Jordy Mercer gets a good look at SS. While D’Arnaud’s numbers aren’t eye popping, he has stayed consistent and could find himself with the major league club at some point.

Brian Leach




It took a lot of searching but I may have found the only good pitching prospect in the Pirates 2008 draft that has actually produced. Leach was picked in the 25th round and throws 94, although some scouts believe his velocity could increase with time. As a starter Leach has a 3.03 ERA in 7 starts with 18 strike outs and only 9 walks. It appears Leach has been used in middle/long relief as well and has an even better 2.74 ERA, 47 strikeouts and 23 walks in 20 appearances totaling 49.1 innings. Leach is now 23 years old and at Low A so if he can improve a level and his performance each year we may see him at the big league level sometime, especially with Huntington’s love affair with flame throwers. Leach could be showing signs of fatigue as he has given up 14 runs in his past 22.2 innings (spanning 5 games). There is a cluster of starters at WV so it’s unknown whether Leach will be a reliever or a starter. He’s had plenty of 4-6 inning “relief” appearances, including a 6 inning appearance with Rudy Owens (who only pitched 3 innings) on July 28 where he gave up the only hit in a shut out of Charleston. Perhaps 2010 Leach will have a more defined role and we will know more, but he has some fairly impressive stats and could turn out to be one of the better pitchers from this draft class.



Disappointments: Wes Freeman, Justin Wilson, Name a Pitcher

Wes Freeman

Freeman was called a 5 tool prospect and at 19 still has a lot to show, however his .213 batting average in Bradenton is a shocker. His 13 home runs, however, leave some semblance of hope. 2010 could be a defining year for Freeman. Can he put his 2009 batting average behind him and work on showing why he was a 5 tool player coming out of high school? Freeman needs to get out of Bradenton next year like fellow 2008 pick Grossman. It appears most Pirates prospects are striking out a lot (47 in 43 games for Freeman) so hopefully this will be addressed in the near future. It’s way too early to give up on Freeman, especially at only 19, but a .213 batting average at Rookie Level can be really detrimental.

Justin Wilson

Wilson irked some Pirates fans by demanding a huge, unwarranted bonus, but eventually signed. He has continued to irk some Pirates fans by being completely terrible for a good part of the year at Lynchburg. Wilson will turn 22 tomorrow and has sported a 4.83 ERA striking out 72 and walking 48 in 23 starts. Wilson has gone on a hot streak lately giving up only 2 runs in his past 5 starts (27.1 innings). I may be being too hard on Wilson since he appeared to be a reach for the Pirates in the 5th round and he has turned it on recently, but the fact that he wanted way too much money (some rumored $1mil, he eventually signed for slot) and that it delayed his pro debut almost solidified his spot on this list. His poor start to his career has him here, but if his past handful of starts is a sign of him learning how to pitch, Wilson could turn into a #5 starter some day, however I wouldn’t expect it.

Pitching

Again, it’s very early but besides Leach and Miller, go through the list of pitchers taken in the draft and tell me which ones have looked successful? I’m having a hard time finding any. Ultimately, time will tell and the Pirates did a much better job in 2009 of getting pitching, but this class looks like a Dave Littlefield draft when it comes to pitchers (with Miller being the lone exception). I really don’t expect many to improve and you could actually see 0 pitchers from this class make it to the big leagues; however your best bets may be Miller, Leach, Wilson, or perhaps someone left off this list.



2008 Draft One Year Later Thoughts

While it is WAY too early to tell what the draft class will look like, it appears the Pirates got a few good prospects to work with in Grossman, Miller, D’Arnaud and Leach and a possible can’t miss prospect with Alvarez. Some other players to look out for include Jarek Cunningham, Matt Hague and power hitting/giant first baseman Calvin Anderson. The Pirates got a few toolsy prospects in Grossman and Wes Freeman that are only 19 in their first full year of pro ball. The only thing missing from the draft was a few pitchers that might get a look as prospects. Miller isn’t a sure thing and Wilson may be a fringe prospect, so I hope somebody steps up from this class and comes out of nowhere, ala Rudy Owens from 2007. This draft was a good first step for the new Pirates regime and it looks they took an even bigger step in 2009. Ultimately I think this was a solid draft compared to the Littlefield years where signable players and college seniors were taken like they were going out of style. Huntington has shaken up baseball by offering way above slot for guys taken later in the draft, let’s just hope this is the draft we look back at where it all started!